Sudan's Conflict (2023-Present) and Its Implications for Ethiopia

Abstract

This article analyzes the post-2023 conflict in Sudan by examining how historical legacies, internal ideological divisions, and the competing interests of external actors have impeded the country’s political transition, turning it into a protracted cycle of crises, and explores the broader implications for its immediate neighbor, Ethiopia. To understand the interplay of these factors and their impact, the study adopts a qualitative approach, relying primarily on secondary sources. The study argues that Sudan’s post-2023 conflict stems from internal political divisions driven by the power and economic interests of competing military factions, compounded by substantial external influences. Both the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Force (RSF) have re-strategized the war geographically from east to southwest and instrumented tools from air and ground operations to UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). The findings reveals that the conflict has a spillover effect on Ethiopia which ranges from increased border insecurity, refugee influx, arms trafficking to increased presences of insurgents operating along the border. As a result, Ethiopia faces a dilemma: safeguarding its national security while respecting the sovereignty of its unstable neighbor. The study concluded that resolving the conflict requires an integrated and proactive diplomatic approach led by continental and sub-regional institution, with external actors playing a supportive role, aimed at reaching a permanent ceasefire, cessation of hostility, and at the end strengthening civilian forces in the transition to state power.