Diagnosis Without Cure: Integrative Review of Change Strategies in Ethiopia's University Entrance Examination Reforms

Abstract

The current study employs the theory of change strategies proposed by Chin and Benne (2009) to conduct
an integrative systematic review of reform strategies with respect to Ethiopia's University Entrance

Examination System. Reform strategies are classified into three types: empirical-rational, normative-re-
educative, and power-coercive. In this regard, 30 articles published from 2000 to 2025 were subjected to

analysis based on the PRISMA Synthesis without Meta-analysis guidelines. Each study was coded
according to its implied change strategy. We identified a notable strategic imbalance, with most studies
using an empirical-rational approach (66.7%), followed by a power-coercive approach (16.7%), while
the use of a normative-re-educative approach was negligible (6.7%). The thematic synthesis revealed
interconnected systemic challenges: the exam demonstrates weak predictive validity (correlations with
university performance ranging from .014 to .326 for first-year performance), with further erosion by
graduation (r=.014), questioning its selection utility; psychometric quality was inconsistent. In the
context of top-down administration, reforming the University Entrance Examination system in Ethiopia
also brought logistical problems and fairness issues; there was a negative washback effect affecting
pedagogy; and there were socio-economic and resource connections with student performance, while
stakeholder views got limited attention. This triadic rebalancing may be important for developing a valid,
equitable, and trusted higher education selection system.