Analysis of Household Food Security and Determinants in the Face of Conflict and Drought in South Wollo Zone Ethiopia

Abstract

The study analyses the impact of conflict and drought on household food security and identifies determinant factors and coping strategies in South Wollo Zone, Ethiopia. Descriptive and quasi-experimental research designs were employed for pre-post retrospective data gathered from 422 randomly selected households. Qualitative data collected from key informants, focus group discussants, and related literature complemented the quantitative aspect of the study. Quantitative data was analyzed using regression models in Stata, while qualitative data was analyzed using thematic analysis. The study revealed that conflict and drought significantly undermine household food security. The combined exposure to conflict and drought increases food insecurity, which highlights the compounded nature of these crises. Per capita calorie availability drops from 1,789 kcal pre-conflict to 1,420 kcal post-conflict was observed, below the Ministry of Health recommendation of 2,300 kcal. This decrease was attributed to the individual and combined impacts of conflict and drought on food security, highlighting an increase in food-insecure households from 79% to 87%. In comparison, food-secure households fell from 21% to 13% using a household food balance model in the pre-post periods. The Coping Strategy Index rose as food security deteriorated, with households resorting to a combination of riskier coping mechanisms to cope with food insecurity. Some coping strategies that households consider include dietary changes, rationing, and reliance on community-based support systems like equb, edir, and debo. The regression analysis identified livestock ownership in total livestock units, agricultural index, work ratio, and age of the household head as positively associated with food security. In contrast, larger family size, exposure to drought, and exposure to conflict and aid were negatively associated. The study offers policy recommendations to build productive livelihood through asset building and livelihood diversification to foster self-reliance, and integrated recovery programs acknowledging the compounding nature of conflict and drought to improve food security.