Ethiopia’s Regional Position in the Horn of Africa: Constraints, Perspectives and Scenarios

Abstract

Ethiopia’s regional position does not just refer to the physical presence of the country in projecting power in adjacent areas; it also refers to the struggle Ethiopia finds itself in generating trust and legitimacy. Thus far, Ethiopia has faced challenges in both spheres. Ethiopia’s current position in the Horn of Africa has continued to determine its regional role. In a similar vein, its aspiration to actively engage with the region is determined by its position. Hence, there is reinforcement between the country’s regional position and the concomitant role it seeks to play. The research findings have demonstrated that Ethiopia’s endeavor to play a regional security role is currently encumbered by both domestic and external factors, which in turn hampers Ethiopia’s opportunity to seize the geopolitical space of the region. Cognizant of the trajectory of Ethiopia’s security role in the regional security landscape, three perspectives are emerging: the optimist view; the realist or balanced view, and the pessimist view. Against the backdrop of the precarious regional position of the country, the paper argues that the future position of Ethiopia in the region and the region itself would fall into the following categories: Competing Hegemonic Power between Kenya and Ethiopia; Kenya will assert its hegemony1 in the region; Ethiopia will reassert its dominance that is a return to status quo ante and a region without a clear hegemon.