Trend Analysis of Enij.Olment Sex-Ratios in Government Schools of Ethiopia

Abstract

In this paper, enrolment data for 26 years was statistically analysed and trend lines for grades 1,6, junior, 9 and 12 were estimated. The trend line equations were used for the extrapolation of trend 13 years into the future. It was possible to identifY three phases of change within the period of 26 years. Phase I showed a tendency for the sex-ratios to decrease with rising grade levels. In Phase 3 this tendency was inverted except f or grade 12. Phase 2 was a period of transformation from the condition in pnasf? 1 to that of phase 3. This period of transition is represe~ted by the crossing of the trend lines. The extrapolated trend lines show that the overall conditions in phase 3 will continue; more specifically, the gap between grade 9 and 12 sex-ratios will continue to widen indicating that increasingly higher proportions of girls will
not be able to reach the end of senior secondary school. It is concluded that this situation has a grave implication for the equality of women in higher levels of education.