Farmer’s Perceived Impacts of Climate Change on Agricultural Production and Coping Strategies in Arsi Negelle Woreda, Ethiopia

Abstract

This study examines trends in climate variability, smallholders' perceptions of changes in climate and its impacts on agricultural production; further it identifies the coping strategies implemented in the study area, Arsi Negelle Woreda. Data was collected through surveys with 131 households. In addition, annual average temperature and precipitation data from 1983 and 2016 were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency of Ethiopia. The study applied the Coefficient of Variation, Standard Rainfall Anomaly, a nonparametric Sen's slope estimator, and Mann–Kendall's trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability in the study area. The Multinomial regression models were used to analyze farmers' decisions to choose climate change coping strategies. The findings revealed that farmers recognize significant challenges like drought, crop failures, and pest outbreaks. Consequently, most farmers chose drought and disease-resistant short-season variety (75%), crop diversification (66%), and irrigation (47%) strategies to adapt to the changing climate. The regression model indicated that education, farmland size, sex of household head, access to credit, and market access and extension services were the key factors determining farmers' decisions to choose climate change coping practices. Thus, increasing their engagement in livelihood diversification is the best alternative way of coping mechanism. The study further concludes that area-specific coping strategies are crucial to reducing the adverse impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security.