Determinants of Household Graduation from the Productive Safety Net Program: The Case of Hadiya and Wolaita Zones, Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples Region, Ethiopia

Abstract

Ethiopia has historically grappled with chronic poverty and food insecurity, prompting
the government to implement anti-poverty initiatives, notably the Productive Safety Net
Program (PSNP), in rural areas since 2005. Despite substantial government efforts to
tackle these problems, food insecurity and vulnerability continue to be significant social,
economic, and political concerns in the country. Therefore, it is imperative to examine
the factors that determine rural households‘ ability to graduate from the PSNP and
achieve food security. The study employed cross-sectional data and utilized both
quantitative and qualitative methods. Data were collected from 186 individuals, including
PSNP beneficiaries and graduated households, and a binary logistic regression model was
used for analysis. Only 39.24% of households owned oxen, 12.4% utilized irrigation, and
33.33% accessed credit, with the average farmland size measured at 0.5202 hectares,
below the national average of 1.33 hectares and the regional average of 1.5 hectares.
Beneficiaries earned 252.52 birr less in annual farm income than did graduated
households, and their off-farm income was lower by 4,169.05 birr. Model results
indicated that seven variables significantly affected household graduation from the PSNP.
As the education level of household heads increased from one category to another, the
probability of graduation rose by 10.524%. Oxen holdings increased the likelihood of
graduation by 26.0323%, while off-farm income contributed a marginal increase of
0.0018% on the log scale, and access to irrigation increased the likelihood of graduation
by 23.9155%. In contrast, as family size increased, the probability of graduation
decreased by 9.101%. Similarly, limited access to fertilizers reduced the probability of
graduation by 23.487%, and limited access to credit decreased it by 11.832%. Qualitative
analysis further revealed additional factors affecting graduation, including insufficient
PSNP payments, substantial public work commitments, large family sizes, low education
levels, small landholdings, limited fertilizer access, inadequate irrigable land, weak credit
institutions, and high interest rates. A minimal percentage of beneficiaries owned oxen,
utilized irrigation, and accessed credit, which significantly hampered their welfare. These
findings highlight the crucial role of social and economic factors in improving the
likelihood of program graduation. Addressing these barriers through targeted
interventions is essential for enhancing the overall effectiveness of the PSNP.

To improve household graduation rates and overall food security, it is vital to implement targeted interventions that address these barriers, promote sustainable economic stability, and ensure food self-sufficiency among beneficiaries.