Climate Variability and Drought Trends in Pastoral and Agro-Pastoral Districts: Spatial-Temporal Perspectives in Guji and West Guji Zones

Abstract

This study examines the spatial and temporal patterns of climate variability and drought trends in the Guji and West Guji zones of Ethiopia, focusing on their effects on pastoral and agro-pastoral communities. A mixed-methods, cross-sectional design was used, combining household surveys, key informant interviews, focus groups, and remote sensing. A multi-stage sampling method selected four districts per zone based on vulnerability to climate shocks, with 382 households sampled using Yamane’s formula. Climate data, including rainfall and temperature, were obtained from Ethiopia’s Meteorology Institute and complemented with satellite imagery (Landsat, Sentinel-2) analyzed via ArcGIS and ERDAS Imagine. Quantitative analysis involved calculating the coefficient of variation (CV), rainfall concentration index (PCI), and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) to assess variability and drought severity across districts and seasons. Findings reveal high inter-annual rainfall variability (CV > 50%), with eastern and southern areas experiencing more unpredictable rainfall, thus increasing drought risk. SPI results show recurrent severe drought episodes during autumn and spring, with some districts facing drought over 60% of the time. Spatial drought hotspots include Liban, Dugda Dawa, and Saba Boru, indicating uneven vulnerability. Climate variability has caused water shortages, pasture degradation, and livestock mortality, severely affecting livelihoods. Drought frequency has increased over the past two decades, intensified by rising temperatures. The study emphasizes the need for district-specific adaptation strategies such as water harvesting, drought-resistant crops, and resilient pastoral practices. It advocates for integrated climate monitoring and community resilience programs to reduce risks and promote sustainable livelihoods in vulnerable districts.