CURRENT STATUS AND FUTURE INVASION POTENTIAL OF LANTANA CAMARA L. UNDER THE CHANGING CLIMATE AND LAND COVER IN THE CENTRAL RIFT VALLEY, ETHIOPIA

Abstract

In Ethiopia, Lantana camara is listed among the top ten worst
invasive weeds. Lantana has become a chronic environmental, social,
economical and health problem in different parts of the country, mainly in the
eastern escarpments of Hararghe, Somali and Wollo. Understanding the
potential distribution of this invasive species will give useful information in
planning effective strategies to control its invasion. This study aimed to
examine the current (2020) and future invasion potential of L. camara in the
Central Rift Valley (CRV), Ethiopia, under climate and land cover change
using an ensemble ecological niche modeling approach. Under the current
climate scenario, 90.5% of the study area was unsuitable for the
establishment and invasion of L. camara, while 1.4% was highly suitable.
The model predicted that the rate of L. camara invasion will increase across
the CRV as increasing temperature undermining the competitive power of
indigenous species. In 2050, a highly suitable area for L. camara
establishment is expected to increase by 22.2%, while the moderately suitable
area is projected to increase by 11.4% under RCP4.5 climate scenarios.
Compared to the current climatic condition, in 2070, a highly suitable area
for the species is projected to increase by 41.7%. With the current cover, this
invasive species had already caused a significant impact in many parts of the
country. Further invasion of the species would lead to serious environmental
and socio-economic damage, thereby threatening the livelihood of the
community. Thus, a well-coordinated management strategy should primarily
target areas that are suitable for L. camara.