Ethiopian Journal of Strategic and International Affairs (EJSIA)

Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates Economic Diplomacy: Trajectory and Trends

Mohammed Seid — 2026-11-03

This article examines the trajectory and trends of economic diplomacy
between Ethiopia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from 2014 to 2023.
The study employed concurrent mixed research approach, relying on
both qualitative and quantitative data. The findings revealed that
Introduction
Ethiopia’s economic diplomacy with the UAE transformed from closed
treaty-based to flexible strategic partnership. The study also highlights
that there is a steady growth in trade relations between the UAE and
Ethiopia though the latter experienced negative trade balance. Although
the investment is one sided only from the UAE, it is rapidly growing with
annualized growth rate of 29.7% Moreover, Ethiopia is the leading
recipient of the UAE aid in the Horn of Africa followed by Sudan and
Somalia. Using the theory of state craft, the study concludes that the UAE
uses trade incentives, investment and aid as tools of foreign policy
influence while Ethiopia leverages the partnership for economic
resilience and strategic autonomy

Algorithmic Statecraft: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Ethiopian Diplomacy

Memar Ayalew — 2026-11-03

The advent of artificial intelligence (AI) is fundamentally transforming the
landscape of international relations and diplomatic practice worldwide.
This article explores the concept of algorithmic statecraft and its potential
implications for Ethiopian diplomacy in an increasingly digitalized global
order. Through a comprehensive analysis of AI applications in foreign
policy, this study examines how Ethiopia can leverage algorithmic tools to
enhance its diplomatic capabilities, strengthen regional leadership, and
advance national interests on the global stage. The research identifies key
opportunities in areas such as predictive analytics for conflict prevention,
automated diplomatic communication, data-driven negotiation support,
and enhanced public diplomacy through AI powered platforms. While
acknowledging significant benefits including improved decision-making
efficiency, cost reduction, and expanded diplomatic reach, the article also
addresses critical challenges such as technological dependencies, ethical
concerns, cybersecurity risks, and the digital divide. Methodologically, the
article employs a qualitative, interpretive policy analysis combining a single
country case study (Ethiopia) with a structured comparison of foreign
ministry AI adoption across three categories: Leaders, Adopters, and
Observers. The methods are documentary analysis, thematic coding, and
structured comparative mapping, with findings triangulated across source
categories. The findings suggest that while algorithmic statecraft presents
transformative opportunities for Ethiopian foreign policy, success requires
careful navigation of technical, ethical, and geopolitical complexities. This
research contributes to the emerging discourse on AI in international
relations from an African perspective and offers practical insights for
policymakers seeking to modernize diplomatic practice in the digital age.

Turkish Mediation Diplomacy: Institutional Mechanisms, Track Records and the Ankara Process

Suadiq Sufian — 2026-11-03

Türkiye has become a prominent player in mediation diplomacy since
2003, as the Justice and Development Party (AKP) have prioritized
mediation engagements across the world, leveraging it as a strategic
instrument of Turkish foreign policy. In this regard, the present paper
examines the implications of Turkish mediation diplomacy, with a
particular focus on the Ankara process that deescalated tension between
Ethiopia and Somaliland over the Ethiopia-Somaliland 2024
Memorandum of Understanding. The paper relied on an explanatory
qualitative research design, employing a combination of primary and
secondary data sources. The findings revealed that Turkish mediation
efforts have yielded notable successes despite persistent challenges.
Türkiye played a pivotal role in de-escalating tensions between Ethiopia
and Somalia following the Ankara declaration. By facilitating dialogue
and bringing Ethiopia and Somalia to the negotiation table, Ankara
declaration has had the potential to counter Egypt’s calculated
subversive maneuvers aimed at undermining Ethiopia’s national
interests. Consequently, the future of the Egyptian–Eritrean–Somali
alliance appears increasingly uncertain, and the recent strain between
Ethiopia and Somalia has notably eased

Ethiopia's Diplomatic Hurdles with Gulf Countries: Trends, Factors and Implications on Regional Security Dynamics

Yitina Gebre — 2026-11-03

This research analyses Ethiopia’s diplomatic challenges with the Gulf States in the
context of the Red Sea’s rising strategic importance. Using qualitative methods—
including expert interviews and the review and analysis of policy documents—the
study examines the underlying causes of diplomatic hurdle in these relations. Key
sources of tension include historical rivalries, religious influences, economic
competition, and disputes over water security, divergent political outlooks, and the
role of external actors. In the contemporary period, these factors are compounded
by new pressures. Ethiopia’s strained relations with Eritrea affect its access to
regional maritime networks, while Gulf investments in agriculture, energy and
infrastructure create both opportunities and concerns regarding sovereignty and
equitable resource distribution. The construction of the Grand Ethiopian
Renaissance Dam (GERD) has further intensified water-security anxieties across
the Nile Basin, despite Addis Ababa’s assurances. Likewise, intensifying global
rivalries in the Red Sea have contributed to proxy conflicts and heightened
maritime security risks and limiting Ethiopia’s strategic choices. The study argues
that Ethiopia should pursue a proactive but carefully balanced diplomatic
approach toward the Gulf States. By addressing historical factors, managing
regional economic interests and engaging effectively in collective security
initiatives, Ethiopia can protect its national interests while contributing to resilient
stability in the Horn of Africa and the broader Red Sea region.

The Role of the United Nations and African Union in Promoting International Peace and Security: A Liberal Perspective

Debela Fituma Mammo — 2026-11-03

Which theory of IR would explain the role and aspiration of the United
Nations (UN) and the African Union (AU) in promoting peace and
security in Africa? Although this question is difficult to answer and no
Introduction
single theory can fully capture the complexities surrounding the issue,
this article contends that liberal ideas have profoundly influenced the
creation of the UN and the AU and their roles in international and
regional peace and security. To that purpose, this article adopts a
qualitative critical literature review method in which thematically and
contextually analyzed material illustrates how liberalism molded the
premise and goals of the UN and AU to promote peace and security in
Africa. This is tied to UN-led global action, which, when paired with the
AU's considerable continental role, illustrates liberalism's impact on their
foundation and aspiration, allowing them to cooperate. However, there
is a disputed link between the Constitutive Act of the AU and the rules
based structure of the UN Charter, which poses special operational
challenges due to the global power rivalry regime found not only in the
implementation or operationalization of specific policies but also in their
design. Despite this, liberalism provides the AU and the UN with an
opportunity to invest in progressive cooperation to achieve their
respective and joint aspirations, such as the AU Agenda 2063 and the
2030 UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which desire a mutual
determination for the improvements in human security under a
deepened and strong multilateralism context

The Rationale for the Merger of IGAD and EAC: Its Potential Benefits and Challenges for the Greater Horn

Tesfaye Molla — 2026-11-03

One of the ubiquitous problems of the African economic integration
process is multiple and overlapping memberships in different regional
economic communities (RECs). One solution for this is the merger of
these RECs into a single, larger entity. This study examined the rationale
for the merger of IGAD and EAC as one larger new regional economic
community in the greater Horn of Africa and assessed its potential
benefits and challenges for the region. Qualitative design was employed,
and primary data from policy and research experts and secondary
resources were consulted. The study argues that the harmonization may
address the two blocs’ weaknesses over the decades of their existence,
and combining the focus on peace and security of IGAD with the
economic integration achievements of the EAC would allow the new
larger single entity to leverage their respective strengths to drive
sustainable peace and development, advance regional economic
integration, and promote the African Continental Free Trade Area
(AfCFTA). It would also create a larger market with a combined GDP and
population, attracting increased investments and fostering economic
growth. By aligning policies and removing trade barriers, the merged
entity could enhance regional trade and create opportunities for
businesses to thrive. Besides, the larger entity would help increase the
bargaining power of the region and could also lead to more effective
responses and resilience-building strategies to migration, climate
change, and humanitarian crises the region faces. However, overcoming
political rivalries and reconciling different perspectives will be essential
to overcoming the challenges ahead. It is suggested that weak
institutional organization, political unwillingness, and instability need to
be addressed for a successful merger

Breaking the Cycle: Rethinking Ethiopia's Relations with Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan

Abdurahman Edao — 2026-11-03

This article examined the structural sources of national security threats
confronting Ethiopia and the evolution of strategic responses across
successive regimes. Situated within a volatile regional landscape,
Ethiopia contends with persistent challenges emanating from its
immediate neighbors—Eritrea, Somalia, and Sudan—which have
historically served both as direct antagonists and as transit corridors for
external adversaries. Drawing on historical analysis and case study
research design, this paper argued that Ethiopia's recurring policy
challenges stem from a fundamental mismatch between rhetorical
commitments to regional cooperation and the strategic realities of a
competitive interstate system. The analysis traced the historical dynamics
between Ethiopia and the three core states of the Horn, evaluating both
historical contentions and subsequent policy countermeasures. The
paper is structured in four parts: an introductory framework, three case
studies examining Sudan, Somalia, and Eritrea respectively, and a
concluding synthesis that identified persistent patterns and proposes
analytic recalibrations for Ethiopia’s foreign policy.

Ethiopia’s Post-2018 Economic Reforms: Implications for Ethiopia’s Foreign Policy Orientation and Practice

Haimanot Eshetu — 2026-11-03

This study investigates the effects of Ethiopia's post-2018 economic
reforms on its foreign policy. Using thematic analysis of qualitative data,
the study found a substantial relationship between the reforms and shifts
in foreign policy. The 2019 economic reform marked a notable shift from
a security-dominated to an economic diplomacy focus, particularly
evident in Ethiopia's commitment to fostering economic integration with
neighbors. These shifts have prompted a re-evaluation of Ethiopia's
international engagements for economic improvement and enhanced
diplomatic relations. However, challenges remain. Ethiopia needs to
establish broader foreign relations to navigate partnerships and manage
diverse connections and interests, requiring robust economic diplomacy,
especially given ongoing reforms impacting several States. Adjustments
in the exchange rate regime, from fixed to floating, are central to the
macroeconomic reform. While these adjustments are expected to increase
international interest, they necessitate a strategic approach to foreign
relations to maximize potential benefits.

Ethiopia's Path to Regional Integration within COMESA: Synergies and Trade-offs

Yalemsew Genetu — 2026-11-03

Ethiopia has undertaken a range of policy shifts and liberalization
measures since the post-2018 political reform period, with the aim of
transforming its economic landscape. This study thus examines how
Ethiopia's ongoing policy shifts and liberalization measures shape the
country's engagement in regional and continental integration frameworks,
with a particular emphasis on COMESA. It further explores the tradeoffs
that engagement in regional integration frameworks can bring to Ethiopia's
economy. Methodologically, the research followed a qualitative approach,
using primary and secondary data collected from key informant interviews
and various institutional and academic sources. The findings of the study
indicate strong policy convergence between recent Ethiopian economic
reforms and the COMESA FTA regime across trade policies, industrial
development initiatives, financial reform activities, and the energy and
infrastructure sectors. Accession to FTAs is found to support economic
growth, improve welfare gains, expand market access opportunities,
promote domestic and foreign direct investment, foster economic
specialization based on comparative and competitive advantage, and
enhance economies of scale in some product items. However, Ethiopia’s
immediate full accession to regional trade through the COMESA FTA
could face vulnerabilities, including unfavorable terms of trade, limited
export diversification, tariff revenue loss, and limited private sector
competitiveness. The study thus concludes that Ethiopia must begin with
a clear and phased strategy to accede to the COMESA FTA, deepen
financial reforms to strengthen the interbank foreign exchange
convertibility, enhance a regional payment system, and introduce currency
swap arrangements with key trade partners of COMESA to reduce
dependence on foreign exchange reserves is critical. Additionally
developing a private sector strategy oriented toward the regional market,
strengthening institutional and regulatory capacity for trade governance,
and diversifying export commodities can enhance its effectiveness in free
trade arrangements like the COMESA FTA