Ethiopian Journal of Strategic and International Affairs (EJSIA)

Ethiopia’s Regional Position in the Horn of Africa: Constraints, Perspectives and Scenarios

Henok Getachew — 2025-01-22

Ethiopia’s regional position does not just refer to the physical presence of the country in projecting power in adjacent areas; it also refers to the struggle Ethiopia finds itself in generating trust and legitimacy. Thus far, Ethiopia has faced challenges in both spheres. Ethiopia’s current position in the Horn of Africa has continued to determine its regional role. In a similar vein, its aspiration to actively engage with the region is determined by its position. Hence, there is reinforcement between the country’s regional position and the concomitant role it seeks to play. The research findings have demonstrated that Ethiopia’s endeavor to play a regional security role is currently encumbered by both domestic and external factors, which in turn hampers Ethiopia’s opportunity to seize the geopolitical space of the region. Cognizant of the trajectory of Ethiopia’s security role in the regional security landscape, three perspectives are emerging: the optimist view; the realist or balanced view, and the pessimist view. Against the backdrop of the precarious regional position of the country, the paper argues that the future position of Ethiopia in the region and the region itself would fall into the following categories: Competing Hegemonic Power between Kenya and Ethiopia; Kenya will assert its hegemony1 in the region; Ethiopia will reassert its dominance that is a return to status quo ante and a region without a clear hegemon.

Ethiopia’s Foreign Policy in the Post-2018 Period: Understanding Drivers and Challenges

Abdurahman Edao — 2025-01-22

The post-2018 Ethiopian foreign policy has undergone a significant change. The paper used both primary and secondary sources for data collection. Primary data were gathered through interviews with key informants, while secondary data were obtained from various sources such as books, journal articles, official speeches, published and unpublished documents, and internet sources. The paper emphasizes that Ethiopian foreign policy underwent a significant change after the country embraced political reform in 2018 and the subsequent Ethio-Eritrea rapprochement, ushering in a new era of regional peace and cooperation in shared areas of interest. However, the initial rapprochement efforts were hindered by the signing of the Pretoria Peace Agreement between the Federal Government and the TPLF. Foreign policy has been greatly impacted by internal conflicts, diplomatic tensions, pressures, terrorism, and border disputes. These challenges are hindering the country's foreign relations and diplomatic goals, affecting Ethiopia's international reputation. In conclusion, based on the empirical discussions, the study suggests that Ethiopia's foreign policy should prioritize 'peace at home first' and pursue assertive diplomacy abroad.

Post-Conflict Interventions and Liberal Peacebuilding Approach in South Sudan

Debela Fituma Mamo — 2025-01-22

The challenge of post-conflict peacebuilding in Africa to maintain long-term political order and economic stability persisted. This article contributes to the ongoing debate by concentrating on the situation of South Sudan, which had just two years of independence honeymoon (2011-2013). Using a qualitative case study, the article thoroughly reviews the literature and critically analyzes the debate on peacebuilding methodologies, actors' effect on the peace-building process, the successes and failures of peacebuilding efforts, and probable next steps in the context of South Sudan. The article claims that the liberal peacebuilding attempts in South Sudan have resulted in a multidimensional problem and cyclical conflict without forging a social compact between the people and the government. The peacekeeping process, mediation efforts, and sanction measures are all part of South Sudan's peacebuilding initiatives. Under the controversies of mutually reinforcing liberal peacebuilding interferences, South Sudan is dreaming of national cohesiveness. These liberal peacebuilding projects, however, suffer from epistemological irrelevance, methodological challenges, institutional impotence, and practical incompleteness. Thus, the situation in South Sudan emphasizes the importance of developing innovative peacebuilding strategies that will not only facilitate dialogue but also promote inclusivity, ownership, and the transfer of agency to communities by taking into account the local circumstances.

Armed Non-State Actors in Ethiopia: Drivers and Regional Security

Gizachew Asrat — 2025-01-22

This article examined the causes, activities, and conditions (domestic and regional) for the emergence and intransigence of ANSAs and the security implications they have posed to the Horn in general and Ethiopia in particular by answering the following research questions: What factors explain the continuous rise of insurgency in the Horn of Africa particularly in Ethiopia? And how do the domestic and regional contexts challenge the unfolding efforts to deal with sanctuary insurgency? To address this research question the study employed primary and secondary data collection tools, such as, KIIs. Armed groups are widely seen as a danger to Ethiopia’s national stability. Since April 2018, when a new administration took office, Ethiopia has taken drastic measures to address the problem of armed groups by removing them from its terrorist list. As a result, most armed groups have denounced violence and announced their readiness to participate in peaceful electoral politics. Despite all this over the last five years, Ethiopia as a state has faced challenges caused by ANSAs. This article identified three domestic factors that contributed for the unrelenting existence and proliferation of ANSAs in Ethiopia. These are politics of autochthony, weaponizing identity, and unemployment. In addition to these domestic factors, regional issues such as historical enmity, mistrust, proxy, inability to control areas effectively, state failure, local level corruption, the abundance of weaponry, and the rugged topography of the international border areas of Ethiopia are the main contributing factors for the continuous proliferation of ANSAs in Ethiopia. Addressing these issues requires a multi-pronged approach that tackles ethnic grievances, promotes genuine dialogue between communities, and dismantles the networks that perpetuate violence. Regionally, following diplomatic communication and security cooperation are viable optionsfor regional security.

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam: An Appraisal of Colonial Agreements, Issues of Existence and Forum for Negotiation

Amare K. Aweke — 2025-01-22

Over the centuries, the Nile basin has served as a source of conflict and cooperation among the riparian states. Egypt especially guarded its claim to the Nile waters, threatening military action against Sudan and Ethiopia whenever they announced water projects on the river. Although there have been various agreements signed over the use and utilization of Nile waters over the years, none of these agreements are accepted by all riparian states. Egypt and Sudan had built extensive water reservoirs and dams along the Nile and effectively utilized mechanized agriculture through irrigation and installed hydropower electricity generators. However, Ethiopia, which contributes more than 85% to the Nile, did not use the Nile waters for agriculture or generate electricity until recently. Following the announcement of the construction of the GERD in 2011, Egypt and Sudan have been at odds with Ethiopia, claiming it has a devastating impact on their interests. Both Egypt and Sudan saw Ethiopia’s commitment to building the GERD as an existential threat to the lower riparian states. Also, both claimed that Ethiopia had no legal right to build a dam along the banks of the Nile by reciting the colonial agreements. This paper, through a doctrinal and interpretative methodological analysis, therefore, assesses the existential-ness of the Nile waters to all riparian states and the need to focus on equitable share and utilization. It also refutes the colonial agreements of 1902, 1929, & 1959 by walking through plausible legal analysis relying on international laws of watercourses. It also discusses how the African Union (AU) led-trilateral negotiation can be the viable solution to end hostilities over the GERD in line with the principle of “African solutions for African problems”.

Militarization and Commercialization of Ports in the Horn of Africa: Prospects and Implications for Ethiopia

Sadiq Sufian — 2025-01-22

The Horn of Africa has witnessed intense competition in the militarization and commercialization of ports. These developments are particularly significant for landlocked countries like Ethiopia. Therefore, Ethiopia must search for opportunities within the Gulf-Horn cooperation scheme. This study aims to examine the implications of port commercialization and militarization in Ethiopia. The findings reveal that the presence of foreign troops, an increase in military bases, and the impact of Gulf rivalries are causing serious security concerns. In light of this security conundrum, it is necessary to reconsider the concept of siege mentality from a different perspective. Indeed, Ethiopia could also benefit from a range of opportunities. For instance, the recent developments in the Horn of Africa could inspire the revival of the Ethiopian Naval Force and offer alternative port options to support Ethiopia's need for seaports. Additionally, this could encourage investment from the Gulf States. However, Ethiopia should also regularly monitor the security dynamics in the Horn region, advocate for multilateral African initiatives like the IGAD-led peace process, maintain a balanced relationship with the Gulf States, and promote a win-win approach to their engagement.

The Navigating Strategies of Middle Powers in an Era of Great Power Rivalry: Drawing Strategic Lessons from Japan, India and Indonesia

Darskedar Taye — 2025-01-22

We are living in an era of heightened great power rivalry whereby every state of the world is being affected, including Ethiopia. The Sino-US rivalry is becoming more apparent in regions like the Asia-Pacific so that states in this region pursue different navigating strategies that best serve their national interests. Given the difference in relative power of states, be it great power, middle power and small power, all states in the Asia-Pacific region have diverse foreign policy orientations. Thus, this study is aimed at identifying the strategies of selected middle power states, Japan, India and Indonesia, and drawing some strategic lessons relevant to Ethiopia. The study utilized qualitative methods such as key informant interviews and document analysis to collect data. Through thematic analysis, the researcher identified the main strategies of the selected cases. In the mounting Sino-US rivalry, three navigating strategies are identified. These are the bandwagon strategy of Japan, the issue-based engagement of India, and the balancing strategy of Indonesia.

Turkiye’s Engagement in the Horn of Africa: Its Scenarios and Implications

Suadiq Sufian Ali — 2025-01-22

The Horn of Africa region occupies a significant position in the theatrical stage of world geopolitics. Foreign countries, both emerging regional powers and superpowers, have considered the region as a key hub for security and trade returns. Consequently, competition for the alliance has increased in the region geometrically. The recent Turkish involvement epitomized this new dynamic. Against this background, the current paper sought to explore the future of Turkiye’s position in the region in light of possible scenarios and implications. The paper highlighted that the likelihood of Turkish engagement in the region will be increased in the foreseeable future. Several factors may have determined Turkish engagement in the region. More importantly, Turkish developmental and economic aspirations, its potential to maneuver the geopolitical chessboard of the region, and the prospects placed in the Horn of Africa will affect Turkish assertive engagement in the future.

Ethiopia's Impact on Global Security: Unveiling Its Role in the United Nations Security Council

Tesfaye Gebremichael — 2025-01-22

This article delves into Ethiopia's diplomatic influence on the United Nations Security Council through a historical analysis. Despite Ethiopia's long-standing contributions to international organizations, particularly in fostering international peace and security, its multilateral engagements have often been underreported. This study intends to shed light on Ethiopia's significant yet overlooked engagement and contributions to the UN Security Council, as there is limited understanding of its involvement in the council despite being elected as a non-permanent member on multiple occasions. Adopting a qualitative approach, the research draws historical and contemporary sources, as well as in-depth interviews with high-ranking diplomats and key officials from Ethiopia's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. It stresses the significance of comprehensively examining Ethiopia's dynamic involvement in the Security Council by analyzing its accomplishments and the factors shaping its engagement. The findings suggest a need for revising the existing foreign policy and adopting clear guiding principles consistent with international legal behavior. Additionally, there is a call for further efforts, including enhancing the country's image and diplomatic initiatives to bolster its role in the UN Security Council. Ultimately, this research sets the stage for future studies on Ethiopia's diplomatic influence in multilateral international organizations.