The Geopolitical Dynamics in the Horn and Domestic Politics in Somalia: Implications for Ethiopian National Security

Abstract

The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of the geopolitical
dynamics in the Horn of Africa and Somalias internal politics on Ethiopias
national security interests and regional stability. The study employed a qualitative
methodology using in-depth interviews, key informant interviews, focus group
discussions, and document analysis with purposively selected data sources. The
findings reveal that the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa is characterised by
complex power struggles, terrorism, competing economic interests, and space for
great power competition, posing significant implications for Ethiopia's border
security, regional stability, and the need to navigate the complex web of competing
economic and strategic interests in the Horn. Ethiopia's desire for access to the sea
through Somaliland is a recent hot-button issue, with various actors positioning
themselves in response to this development and further complicating the landscape.
The withdrawal of ATMIS from Somalia has also raised security concerns,
prompting Ethiopia to enhance its security capabilities and establish strategic
partnerships to counter emerging threats. The involvement of foreign actors and
their interventions in Somalia have had far-reaching implications for the broader
security, political, and economic dynamics in the region, directly impacting
Ethiopias stability and security interests. To address these challenges, the study
recommends that Ethiopia should strengthen its border security, enhance counter-
terrorism capabilities, and develop deterrence measures to protect its national
security. Simultaneously, Ethiopia should engage in proactive regional diplomacy
and coordinate the application of hard power and soft power tools to create
synergies and enhance the effectiveness of its regional security strategy.