Examining the Dynamics of the Sudan Armed Conflict

Abstract

The ongoing armed conflict in Sudan, which erupted in April 2023, is rooted in deep-seated
political, ethnic, and economic divisions, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)
and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This study examines the dynamics of the conflict, focusing
on its key drivers, including power struggles within the security sector, historical governance
deficits, and the legacy of Omar al-Bashir’s divide-and-rule policies. Employing an actor-based
analysis, the research identifies the organizational structures of SAF and RSF, their sources of
internal and external support, and the incompatibilities fueling the violence. The paper
highlights the fragmented nature of Sudan’s security governance, exacerbated by regional and
international actors such as Egypt, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia, who have vested interests in the
conflict. Using ACLED data, the study maps trends in political violence, revealing over 13,981
fatalities within 14 months, with peaks in mid-2023. Despite multiple mediation
efforts—including the Jeddah Talks, IGAD-AU initiatives, and Egyptian-led summits—peace
remains elusive due to the warring parties' refusal to compromise and external interference. The
study concludes that a civilian-led negotiation framework, supported by neutral actors like
China, may offer a viable path to resolution. However, without significant leverage over SAF
and RSF, Sudan risks prolonged conflict, state fragmentation, or a protracted civil war.