ANALYSES OF TEN-YEAR MALARIA TRANSMISSION DYNAMICS IN RELATION TO METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES IN JABI TEHNAN DISTRICT, NORTHWEST ETHIOPIA

Abstract

Retrospective studies of malaria cases from health facilities
and the impact of meteorological factors provide insight into the dynamics of
malaria transmission and the effectiveness of malaria control interventions.
This study aimed to analyze inter-annual and monthly trends in malaria cases
and determine the correlations between meteorological variables and
prevalence of malaria. Retrospective data on malaria cases were extracted
from 11 health centres and 39 health posts in Jabi Tehnan district, northwest
Ethiopia, for 10 years (July 2011–May 2021). Trends in monthly and annual
malaria cases were analyzed and correlated with meteorological data. Of
1,500,868 individuals with febrile complaints examined at the health facilities
in the district, 13.4% were diagnosed as clinical malaria cases. Furthermore,
12.6% of those with febrile symptoms had malaria confirmed with
microscopy and with rapid diagnostic test (RDT). Plasmodium falciparum
comprised 56.48%, with 36.56% P. vivax, and with 6.96% mixed (P.f + P.v)
infections. There were significant variations in inter-annual and monthly
malaria cases (P<0.001; P = 0.004, respectively). Malaria cases peaked in
2011–2013, and 2015–2016, with reduced and relatively lower malaria cases
in 2017–2021. Two malaria peaks in May-June, and in October-November
were recorded. Inter-annual and monthly malaria trends were closely
correlated with relative humidity and average temperatures. Plasmodium
falciparum was predominant compared to P. vivax. Understanding trends in
malaria transmission in relation to climatic variables, and monitoring the
effectiveness of malaria control interventions are needed to reduce malaria in
the area.